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Inside Camp Kotok | David Kotok on “Disastrous and Debilitating” Effect Of Debt Ceiling on Bond Markets
Forward Guidance
The Cost of the Debt Ceiling
In 1979, we had an accident in a payment. We can go look at the market then, use market-based prices and say what happened to interest rates of treasury securities when there was an accident. This time around, it's 10%. And the market is already pricing in in 2025 a replay of this nonsense because that's the expiration date. So what does that mean? If credit default swaps costs more, it's the cost of finance of all federal paper. 27 trillion worth is more. I'm going to ask everybody for an opinion tonight. Does it impact other types of dollar denominated paper? Some definitely yes. Others, I'm not sure. Do it change the cost of
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