The Importance of Setting Expectations Around Inflation

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A profit price spiral is when corporations raise prices by more than the increase in their costs. This might become a useful new metric to look at, well, how persistent could these inflationary pressures be? One of the goals that we have are to keep inflation expectations anchored around our target of 2% Andrew says this is why setting expectations around inflation is so important.

Economists say that inflation is just too much money chasing too few goods.

But something else can make inflation stick around.

If you think of the 1970s, the last time the U.S. had really high sustained inflation, a big concern was rising wages. Prices for goods and services were high. Workers expected prices to be even higher next year, so they asked for pay raises to keep up. But then companies had to raise their prices more. And then workers asked for raises again. This the so-called wage-price spiral.

So when prices started getting high again in 2021, economists and the U.S. Federal Reserve again worried that wage increases would become a big problem. But, it seems like the wage-price spiral hasn't happened. In fact wages, on average, have not kept up with inflation.

There are now concerns about a totally different kind of spiral: a profit-price spiral. On today's show, why some economists are looking at inflation in a new light.

This episode was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler and engineered by Katherine Silva, with help from Josh Newell. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and edited by Jess Jiang.

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