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THINKING, FAST & SLOW (DANIEL KAHNEMAN) - Listening books
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What You See Is All There Is
As the what you see is all there is rule implies, neither quantity nor quality of evidence counts for much in subjective confidence. Our associative system tends to settle on a coherent pattern of activation and suppresses doubt and ambiguity. Different ways of presenting the same information often evoke different emotions. The statement that the odds of survival one month after surgery are 90% is more reassuring than the equivalent statement that mortality within one month of surgery is 10%.
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