All quiet for Presidents Day
NAB Morning Call
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Bond Yields - Do You Think They've Peaked?
Markets are pricing in about a 10% chance as a 50 basis point hike come the March meeting. But if you do get some pretty good data still coming through and you still have that inflation resistance, then maybe the Fed feels like it needs to high rates a little bit further than that. The two-year breakeven is now at 2.9% after having dipped down close to 2% in January and is now at its highest level since November. It does suggest that markets are fearing inflation persistence or inflation becoming sticky. That means high for longer rates.
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