This chapter explores how influential individuals have shaped events throughout history, from dictators making policy decisions based on personal whims to the impact of idiosyncratic personalities in social science models. It discusses distributing power in systems to reduce the influence of individual decision-making, using examples like democracy and how specific leaders like Donald Trump can significantly impact politics. Additionally, the chapter touches on the historical context of the United States, challenges of predicting social system futures, limitations of polling, uncertainty in forecasts, and the concept of probabilities in predicting events like presidential elections.
Brian Klaas is a political scientist, a professor at University College London and an author.
Small, seemingly insignificant events can have profound effects on the world. But how much of our fate is truly determined by chance, and if chaos plays such a huge role, how much control do we actually have over anything?
Expect to learn the chance story of the atomic bomb's targeting, the difference between contingency and convergence, why our brains are so good at distorting reality, the link between Donald Trump's election and the dinosaurs, how a cigar changed the course of the American Revolution, why floorboards in New England are 23 inches wide and much more...