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Episode 77: Sir David Omand on Leveraging How Spies Think In Our Business and Personal Lives

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The Third E an Ss Is Estimation

Nailing down explanation is really hard, but it's important. And therefore the third, the second e an ss, is about estimation. If you've got some decent facts that you've managed to get, data that you've got on the situation, and if you've got a really good explanation you think stacks up, you can use that to try and estimate how events might work. It's what the scientists are doing with covid 19 every day as we speak. They're providing governments with estimates of on the basis of these assumptions. This is what we think is probably going to happen over the next month or whatever. There are no crystal balls, but within limits, you can estimate

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