We tend to poorly calibrate our quitting decisions in that when we get bad news, we tend to persevere too long. We quit things too early is when we're in what we would call the gains. A great experiment from Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky demonstrates this pretty well. In one case, I can give you the sure win of $100 or on a 50-50 proposition where you win 200 or lose zero, the expected value is exactly $100.
#424: We’re taught to stay in the game.
Persist. Be gritty. Try, try again.
But sometimes, the best decision is to walk away. Move on.
How do you know when that’s right? When should you double-down … and when should you fold?
Today’s guest, Annie Duke, won more than $4 million as a professional poker champion. She wrote the bestselling book Thinking in Bets and co-founded a nonprofit that teaches kids decision-making skills.
Her most recent book, “Quit: The Power of Knowing When To Walk Away,” teaches the behavioral science, mental models and recognition of cognitive biases needed to successfully quit.
It highlights real-world examples of startup founders, athletes, mountaineers, and entertainers who either quit – or didn’t – and explains how to make a wise, grounded choice.
She joins us on today’s episode to describe the forces that hold us back from quitting – and how to recognize when quitting could lead to a better life.
For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode424
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