Navigating Uncertainty with Focus and Perspective

Today we had the honor of welcoming back our good friend Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, Chairman of CERAWeek, and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of “The Prize” and more recently “The New Map.” He is widely recognized as one of the foremost experts on energy, geopolitics, and the global economy and his achievements and contributions to the energy industry are immense. We were delighted to have an hour of Dan’s time to hear his latest insights on the evolving energy landscape and to preview key themes and discussions at CERAWeek, which is kicking off in just under two weeks.
 
This Tuesday, Dan’s paper, co-authored with Peter Orszag and Atul Arya, was published in Foreign Affairs titled “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward” (linked here). Dan also recently co-authored an article titled “The importance of US LNG for economic growth and the global energy transition” (linked here). In our conversation with Dan, we explore key themes from both pieces, including the challenges of balancing energy security, economic growth, and the global energy transition. We ask Dan for his perspective on today’s complex geopolitical environment, the influence of the current U.S. administration on energy and regulation, and global energy competition, including the divide between developed and developing nations, where economic growth and energy access remain a top priority. We touch on key topics and speakers at CERAWeek, including new discussions on trade and industrial policy, the future of aviation fuel, Saudi Aramco’s experience with solar, and the growing momentum behind fusion energy, just to name a few. Dan shares insights into the historical context of today’s energy transition, emphasizing that it is an energy addition rather than a transition, along with misconceptions about how transitions unfold and the evolving role of critical minerals in global energy policy. We discuss the potential for a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine war, its implications for commodity markets and geopolitical strategy, and the broader complexities of managing volatility in today’s rapidly shifting energy landscape. As always, it was our pleasure to visit with Dan and we appreciate his thoughtfulness and optimism for the future of energy. Thank you, Dan, for joining us!

Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that broader equity markets seem to be entirely focused on AI-related news this week. He noted that rumors earlier this week that Microsoft was cancelling data center leases have slammed the stock prices of IPP & Electrical Providers. NVIDIA reports Q4 results after Wednesday’s close, which will set the tone for equities (AI Tech & IPPs) through the end of the week. On the crude oil market front, over the last week WTI price has sunk ~$3/bbl ($69/bbl) on several factors, chief among them being growing optimism of a potential Ukrainian ceasefire. Offsetting this potentially bearish oil news is a growing belief that OPEC will delay April scheduled production increases to 2H’25. He rounded out the conversation by highlighting that the focal story in Energy equities this week is BP’s Capital Markets Day (set for Wednesday, details linked here). He noted that BP has previously indicated that the theme for their Capital Markets Day will be a “fundamental reset of strategy” and that investors aren’t going to settle for small changes, rather, they’re demanding a wholesale retreat from renewables, significant non-core asset sales and a total refocus on fossil fuels. Jeff Tillery also joined and