Rational soothsaying
Think with Pinker
How to Be a Better Forecaster
Barte: Listening is a sign of respect. If i hadn't been a journalist, i probably would have been a plumber or an electrician. I feel like if i know how the plumbing and wiring works, i have a better chance of making a good prediction. Or in my case, what i realy think of it is advice, policy, advice, advocaton. And that'shy my motto is always, if you don't go, you don't know. That going doesn't guarantee knowing, it just reduces the odds that you'll get awrong. The super forecasters are actively open minded thinkers. They listen to each other. They take criticism about
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