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Is Gold a Good Inflation Hedge?
Inflation is not volatile. So if you look at inflation rates, let's say over five or ten years, the volatility is trivial - even taking the inflation in the early 19 eighties into account. And then whereas gold, even over these longer periods, it is unreliable as an inflation hedge. I've got a more recent paper looking at various different assets over eight periods of inflation surges in the us. Over 95 years. If you look atthe paper carefully, what we do as we detail period by period,. so we just don't present the average. And actually, gold looks ok but then if you look in detail, you see why. It's one of those surges in the
For this week’s episode (our longest to date), we get together with the legendary Professor Campbell R. Harvey and take a deep dive into a diverse range of topics that draw on his incredible breadth of knowledge and extensive research. Campbell is the Professor of International Business at Duke University and is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. In 2016 he served as the President of the American Finance Association, and from 2006 to 2012 he occupied the incredibly demanding role of Editor for the Journal of Finance. One of his earliest achievements was identifying the inverted yield curve’s ability to predict a recession, a highly regarded metric that is near-ubiquitous in its implementation. For the first half of our conversation, we focus on his research in areas like skewness and emerging economies. We cover specific topics like the factor zoo, why it’s problematic, and how Campbell, along with his student Yan Lui, found through their research that approximately half of the published empirical research in finance at the time was, in fact, false. We also unpack his most downloaded paper entitled The Golden Dilemma and get into the intricacies of why gold is an unreliable inflation hedge. For the latter half of our conversation, we hear about Campbell’s latest book DeFi and the Future of Finance along with his most recent research. Discover how Campbell first became interested in the topic several years ago and decided to put together a course for his students. We also delve into the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and how we can expect it to shape global finance, trading, and the future of the internet. Join us today for this essential episode on everything from the pitfalls of academia, to emerging markets, to Bitcoin, and much more!
Key Points From This Episode:
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode