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Rational soothsaying
Think with Pinker
Predictions Are Not Predictable, They'll Always Surprise You
The most successful forecasters shy away from sweeping ideologies and grand narratives. They're pragmatists who use whatever conceptual tools offer the most insight into the problem at hand. Update their credence in an idea using basian reasoning, that is, starting with the prior or base rate of how often something happens across the board. The methods of the best soothsayers offer lessons to all of us on how to be more rational.
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Discover
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