If persistence is so important at the aggregate level, shouldn't development economics be more predictive? Successfully it, in fact, is. Let's say we take your example of south korea and the philippines. If you have a strong state, it can be good or bad. I'm kind of depending on exactly what that state is doing. It doesn't necessarily promote economic development at all points in time. In some sense, it seems to be largely a prerequisite. Most of those places that have chronically had a weak state are very poor....

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