Episode 259: Comprehensive Overview: Estimating Expected Returns
The Rational Reminder Podcast
The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Future Outcomes
Investors should be using demotorans implied equity risk premium or something very close to it. So we're looking right now at 41.50 at about 4% for equities over the long run going forward. And you'd have to plan. If I'm running a pension fund, uh-oh, I got 4% over equities. Over the T bond, it's 5.5. It doesn't make much difference if you tweak it a little bit.
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