16min chapter

Episode 290 - Morgan Housel: Same as Ever

The Rational Reminder Podcast

notes

CHAPTER

The Illusion of Certainty

They discuss the problems that arise from people seeking certainty in an uncertain world, highlighting the preference for clear-cut predictions and the consequences of this preference. The chapter also touches on the importance of storytelling in shaping our understanding of the world and how people tend to cling to compelling stories, even if they lack truth or evidence.

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Transcript

Episode notes

In this episode, we are joined, for the third time, by renowned author and commentator Morgan Housel. Many of you are familiar with Morgan's bestseller, The Psychology of Money, and he is back to discuss his latest book, Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes. He is also the partner at The Collaboration Fund, a network of fund managers investing across asset classes while identifying and supporting companies at the intersection of for-profit and for-good. In our conversation, we delve into the timeless principles that shape our perspectives of the world and why things are the Same as Ever. We discuss the importance of holding cash, challenging traditional analytical approaches and encouraging a broader reflection on life beyond numbers. Discover the recurrent nature of once-in-a-lifetime events, the pitfalls associated with the insatiable desire for certainty, the value and power of storytelling, and the complex interplay between incentives and expectations. Gain insights into the value of forecasting behaviours instead of market dynamics, why pessimism is more common and more captivating than optimism, embracing slight inefficiencies on the path to success, and much more! Don't miss this engaging discussion with a master storyteller and gain new perspectives on finance, human behaviour, and the principles that remain the Same as Ever with Morgan Housel. Tune in now!

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:03:28) Why it is important to understand the aspects that never change, with examples.

(0:05:58) Morgan explains the value of random and seemingly inconsequential events.

(0:07:43) Discover the most persistent characteristic of risk and the ways expectations impact behaviour and decision-making.

(0:13:04) How he has been dealing with the success of his book, Psychology of Money.

(0:15:11) What makes once-in-a-lifetime events more common than expected and the problems that a desire for certainty brings with it.

(0:19:16) Leveraging storytelling to understand the world and how to filter out the good information from the bad information.

(0:25:41) Explore the role of incentives in influencing expectations and how calm can turn into crazy.

(0:31:06) Learn how success can develop into failure and the problems that stem from investors trying to squeeze too much too soon from their investments.

(0:37:13) Advice for understanding the normal ‘growth rate’ and what motivates innovation.

(0:42:29) Balancing stress and adversity and why being slightly inefficient is a good thing.

(0:46:46) Navigating hassle and nonsense on the path to success.

(0:48:30) The time scale differences in materializing good news and bad news.

(0:50:31) Strategies for combining optimism and pessimism to make informed and effective long-term decisions.

(0:53:03) Examine the challenges of predicting the impact of future innovations.

(0:55:43) The tendency for people to perceive others or businesses as better.

(0:58:38) Hear about the difference between permanent and expiring information.

(1:00:36) Reasons why complexity and length are appealing and how personal experiences shape perspectives.

(1:05:00) Morgan shares the biggest takeaways from his books.

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/