Is the Fed Really Expecting a Slowdown in Job Gains?

The latest guides and signals from the Fed pose a little bit of an upside risk to our own forecast for policy rates. We're only anticipating one more 25 base point rate hike to come at the March FOMC meeting. A key reason for our expectation is that we actually expect a significant slowdown in job gains down close to zero to come this spring. The timing will have an important bearing on the course of monetary policy and could end up determining whether the Fed actually pauses on rate hikes a little bit sooner than it's currently guiding.