Short-term Price Outlook: Path-Dependent Risks

Helima Croft, one of Wall Street’s most influential energy strategists and Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, unpacks the new geopolitics of energy in a world reshaped by wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, OPEC+ policy shifts, and the increasing but volatile drive toward decarbonisation. 

Helima, who began her career as a CIA analyst, explains how energy is once again a tool of statecraft. She discusses why the US and its adversaries are rethinking energy security, comparing the US approach of relying heavily on oil and gas to that of China, who are embracing all energy sources. She also reflects on conversations with senior Trump administration officials who think the scale of oil stockpiling pursued by China suggests they are preparing for potential conflict with the US.

On Venezuela, Helima explains why the Trump administration’s moves are more geopolitical – wanting to remove Chinese and Russian influence – rather than economic, with the task of boosting Venezuelan oil production an incredibly capital-intensive one. 

Helima also explains what she thinks energy markets are missing when it comes to a potential peace deal in Ukraine, and the importance of whether the Iranian regime responds aggressively to any potential US action, or in a muted fashion like last summer.

Geopolitics aside, Helima thinks President Trump’s entire economic policy is based on lower energy prices, which could pose problems for US shale producers in the years ahead. Her razor sharp insight is an essential listen for anyone keen to understand better the current and future shape of the global energy market. 

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