3min chapter

Forward Guidance cover image

The Bear Market Ended Months Ago, Says Master of Turning Points | Milton Berg

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

Is the Yield Curve Forecasting a Bear Market?

Milton: The yield curve inversion has something pretty close to an unblemished track record of forecasting. And a perfect example of when the price action was ahead of the markets and by the time the economic data showed good news, it was already too late is March, April of 2020. But as you say, it's anticipated recession. We don't know whether the NBR will declare that we had a recession or not. If we already had a recession, the unemployment rate would be historically low.

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