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#39: John Hussman On Navigating One Of The Most Overextended Stock Markets Of All Time
Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom
How Sensitive Is the 5.5% to Small Changes in Valuations?
The median dividend yield since 2000, during the bubble years has been about 2% annually. If you move the dividend yield from just 1.5% to 2%, 5 years from now, that change in valuations is a 5.6% annual drag on returns. That's how sensitive your assumptions have to be to not changing at all in order to do well at extreme valuations. It's much more robust, by the way, at depressed valuations.
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