Wishful Thinking and Probabilities

Charlie Munger spent his life studying one question: why do smart people make bad decisions?

In his legendary talk The Psychology of Human Misjudgement, Munger outlined 25 psychological tendencies that quietly distort how we think.

From incentives and social proof to denial, envy, and authority bias, you’ll learn how these hidden tendencies shape behavior and how to build the mental defenses that helped Munger create one of the best decision records in history.

You’ll hear practical examples, powerful antidotes, and lessons you can apply to business, investing, and everyday life.

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Chapters: (00:00) Introduction: (01:38) Pattern #1: Reward and Punishment Superresponse Tendency (05:00) Pattern #2: Liking/Loving Tendency (08:38) Pattern #3: Disliking/Hating Tendency (11:48) Pattern #4: Doubt-Avoidance Tendency (14:19) Pattern #5: Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency (20:08) Pattern #6: Curiosity Tendency (21:30) Pattern #7: Kantian Fairness Tendency (23:32) Pattern #8: Envy/Jealousy Tendency (27:32) Pattern #9: Reciprocation Tendency (31:52) Pattern #10: Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency (35:43) Pattern #11: Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial (37:53) Pattern #12: Excessive Self-Regard Tendency (41:06) Pattern #13: Overoptimism Tendency (42:11) Pattern #14: Deprival-Superreaction Tendency (45:28) Pattern #15: Social-Proof Tendency (48:56) Pattern #16: Contrast-Misreaction Tendency (51:33) Pattern #17: Stress-Influence Tendency (54:20) Pattern #18: Availability-Misweighing Tendency (54:54) Pattern #19: Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency (56:26) Pattern #20: Drug-Misinfluence Tendency (57:23) Pattern #21: Senescence-Misinfluence Tendency (58:42) Pattern #22: Authority-Misinfluence Tendency (01:01:58) Pattern #23: Twaddle Tendency (01:04:18) Pattern #24: Reason-Respecting Tendency (01:06:42) Pattern #25: Lollapalooza Tendency (01:10:28) Epilogue

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I published the full updated version on fs.blog with his permission, we are the only website to my knowledge that had his personal permission to post it.

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