Ep. 1155: Trading Psychology Redux with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Dunning Kruger Effect and Over Confidence
The most over confident people in the world aren't well positioned to realize their own over confidence, except if they realize those feelings of defensiveness. The fact that you think you're not susceptible to any of this over confidence stuff is the surest indicator we have that you are susceptible to it. Data without theory and theory without data produce spurious results. It's extremely difficult to watch people in the throes of it. But sometimes you just got to let the chips fall where they may.
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