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Decision-Making Under Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship (with Miles Lasater)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
Are Venture Returns Distributed Like a Power Law?
If venture returns are distributed like a power law, then what you should be shooting for is to not miss the big winner. In a normal distribution, it's very different where the outliers don't matter that much. The challenge is you can use the same justification for investing in things that make no sense. And I'm also wondering if this kind of power law thinking is self-reinforcing.
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