The Case for a 22% Drop in S&P 500
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The Three Silver Linings of a Recession
It's really the best time to be a lender that we've seen since the global financial crisis. The way we see that playing out, and we've been articulated this for about 18 months is it's going to be a repeat of the slow motion train wreck that we had in bricks and water retail. We'd be cautious on trying to play any short term bounce in any equity read that's listed as we're going into recession. But clearly, as that happens yields will go even higher. And at some point, you know, two to three years from now, we'll start to see real estate broadly rebound at least stabilize at a lower valuation.
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