Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work
Astral Codex Ten Podcast
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How Much Training Do You Need for Human Level AI?
A ja san claims to have a great answer for this. She considers three models, horizons of a few minutes, a few hours and a few years. Each step up adds another three orders of magnitude. The lowest training estimate would take the super computer pictured above, 300 thousand years to complete. But what if we ignore all of that and do something else? This is piling a lot of assumptions atop each other. Ajea tries three other methods of figuring out how hard this training task is. So she ends up with three estimates of 10 to the power of 30, ten to the power f 33 and ten to thePower of 36.
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