Market Shifts: From Geopolitical Concerns to S&P 500 Gains

With President Trump set to announce Jerome Powell’s replacement as Fed Chair “very soon”, policy is likely to turn more dovish. The Trump administration also received a boost with a Supreme Court ruling that federal district courts can no longer issue nationwide injunctions. Meanwhile, a trade deal with China has been signed.

In the treasury market, two key developments signal more demand ahead. Firstly, changes to the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio could free up $5.5 trillion for low-risk assets, mainly treasuries. Additionally, the passing of the GENIUS Act by the US Senate introduces stablecoin regulations that could increase mainstream usage, which could in turn drive demand for treasuries. With these changes in pace, the worries about central banks selling treasuries seem less pressing – after all, as the old saying goes, “If you owe money to yourself, it’s not really a problem.”