In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed’s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy!
__
Follow Harley Bassman: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven
Check out Harley’s website: https://www.convexitymaven.com
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
—
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:54 Implied Forward Rates
03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession
07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance
11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields
13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity
18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread
23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate
26:11 The Fed's Master Plan
29:43 Permissionless Ad
30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation?
35:19 Labor Market & Immigration
38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced?
40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt
42:03 Market Opportunities
44:33 Equities & Rates
47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
