Is There a Second Round Effect on Inflation?

Inflation is currently 8.8%, 8.5%. It's going to drop in two years to 2%. That seems to me to involve having zero second round effects. And so we have maybe a 50 to 100 basis point rate cut priced in the ED curve over the next two years because we get to 4.5% the economy breaks and everything collapses. But for me, that kind of sharp drop in inflation would only happen if we had something pressing down, making the economy demand deficient. And that, I think, has to be fiscal policy. It can't be done by Jack in uprights. What have I gotten wrong? Well, I think we're more dependent on oil