Macro investor Nicholas Glinsman (@nglinsman), co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, joins Julia La Roche on episode 80 for a wide-ranging discussion on China. In this episode, Glinsman highlights the risks investors and corporate decision-makers face with their investments in China, including the inability to get money out of the country.
Link to Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/
Read Harald Malmgren (@Halsrethink) and Nick Glinsman’s “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper here: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf
0:00 Show open
1:08 Welcome Nick Glinsman
1:40 From Salomon Brothers to hedge funds
2:28 Harald Malmgren
5:08 Long Dollar against Chinese Yuan trade
6:25 Assessment of macro environment
7:24 The Fed
9:00 Regional banks, commercial real estate
15:00 Liquidity
18:00 Liquidity impact
23:30 China
25:50 Xi is decoupling China’s economic model
29:30 Investors need to be careful about putting money in China
34:14 Anecdote of a friend who couldn’t get capital out of the country
37:30 Getting money out of Hong Kong is difficult
43:22 A lot of corporate earnings are going to be kept in China
46:40 China Is The Next Japan
51:00 Chinese growth to disappoint headed for “Lost Decade”
55:30 EV cars
58:00 Parting thoughts
