2min chapter

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Thucydides Trap: are America and China destined for war?

The Fourcast

CHAPTER

The Importance of Strategic Imagination

In four of the 16 cases of genuine Thucydity rivalries in the last 100 years there was no war. These were not cases in which the government settled for business as usual or diplomacy as usual. So is it possible to imagine a stretch of strategic imagination in which the two parties find a way to be rivalry partners? I think so. But they're increasingly serious challenges, the most dangerous of which in the year ahead will be Taiwan.

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