The speaker discusses the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, focusing on upcoming negotiations, military dynamics, and Western involvement:

Upcoming Talks: Russia and Ukraine are set to meet on Monday, June 2. Both sides are preparing "memorandums" outlining their negotiating positions, which are already well-known publicly.

Stalemate in Positions: Russia hasn't changed its demands and sees no reason to. It is not "stalling" but rather continuing its military campaign while leaving the door open for talks under its strict conditions.

Western Misperceptions: The West often accuses Russia of not wanting peace, but both sides continue military actions. Ukrainian attacks inside Russia are usually ignored by Western media, while Russian actions are heavily publicized.

Germany’s Role: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently lifted range restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine, allowing them to strike inside Russia. Germany also plans to help Ukraine produce long-range missiles domestically, which the speaker doubts will be successful due to Russian targeting capabilities.

Mutual Escalation: Both Ukraine and Russia are launching drone and missile attacks into each other’s territory. The speaker criticizes Western narratives for only highlighting Russian attacks and ignoring Ukrainian ones, calling it selective and misleading.

Russian Perspective: Russia maintains it is open to negotiations but won't stop fighting unless its conditions are met. Officials warn that strikes on Russia with Western-supplied weapons could lead to retaliation against those supplying countries.

Western Strategy Flawed: Supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine may escalate the war without changing the battlefield dynamics. The speaker argues these weapons haven’t proven effective and may provoke broader conflict, especially if Russia retaliates against Western nations directly.

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EP132: Effective Constraint Manipulation

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