Historic Growth Predicts Little About Future

In this special compilation episode of Excess Returns, we ask one revealing question to some of the most respected investors, strategists, and market thinkers in the industry:

What is one belief you hold about investing that most of your peers would disagree with?

The answers challenge conventional wisdom across macro, valuation, diversification, options, forecasting, AI, and investor behavior.

Rather than consensus, this episode highlights how great investors think differently about risk, uncertainty, and long-term outcomes.

00:06 Jim Grant – Why gold has been, is, and will remain money
02:14 Andy Constan – Why quantitative easing is always pro-growth and inflationary
03:36 Liz Ann Sonders – Why year-end market price targets are a useless exercise
04:56 Richard Bernstein – Why the stock market is ownership, not a horse race
06:33 David Giroux – Why macro investing does not create long-term alpha
08:00 Meb Faber – Why dividend investing narratives are often misunderstood
11:44 Sam Ro – When valuations actually matter and when they don’t
13:27 Jason Buck – Why belief systems in investing are often built on insecurity
15:16 Mike Green – Why markets change when metrics become targets
17:16 Jerry Parker – Why the Sharpe ratio fails for asymmetric return strategies
19:15 Chris Mayer – Why trimming great businesses often hurts long-term returns
21:14 Joseph Shaposhnik – Why a stock that has doubled may still be early
24:27 Warren Pies – Why price and technicals are essential for managing risk
25:33 Katie Stockton – Why technical analysis can stand on its own
27:17 Jim Paulsen – Why policy makers matter less than cultural and economic forces
28:41 Adam Parker – Why differentiated thinking is the only real edge versus the index
30:29 Rupert Mitchell – Why copying great investors is a mistake
31:18 Victor Haghani – Why asset allocation should be dynamic, not static
33:09 Dan Rasmussen – Why historical growth tells you almost nothing about future growth
33:45 Graeme Forster – Why you don't just need to be right 60% of the time
35:40 Shannon Saccocia – Why investors should think more like futurists than historians
36:21 Cem Karsan – Why options are not derivatives, but the true underlying
40:31 Aahan Menon – Why tariffs and macro news matter less than investors think
41:49 Andrew Beer – Why simple bets often outperform complex strategies
44:09 Bogumil Baranowski – Why successful investing requires far less work than people believe
45:55 Rick Ferri – Why advice fees and asset management fees should be separated
46:57 Cameron Dawson – Why multidisciplinary thinking is essential for investors
48:24 Mary Ann Bartels – Why blue chip dividend investing still has a place
49:40 Travis Prentice – Why turnover depends entirely on the strategy
50:24 Scott McBride – Why catalysts are overrated in value investing
50:58 Jared Dillian – Why tariffs and protectionism make economies poorer
53:35 Peter Atwater – Why shareholders are no longer the top corporate priority
54:34 Ian Cassel – Why turnover myths persist in microcap investing
55:31 Kris Sidial – Why trading psychology matters more than models
56:17 Noel Smith – Why top hedge fund returns are not the upper limit
57:09 Kai Wu – How AI will reshape investing jobs without replacing humans
01:00:49 Tim Hayes – Why markets cannot be forecast reliably
01:02:12 Doug Clinton – Why AI-powered asset management could be a multi-trillion-dollar industry