Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
80k After Hours
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Forecasting - Is That a Common Error?
There's a lot of buzz around forecasting at the moment, but what are some of the kind of signs of that? One of the big things was the f t x foundation announced they were going to donate a lot of money. I feel like almost everyone i knew who is in forecasting was interested in some of the some of the ponanza. Sometimes you can get maybe 80 % of the way to a forecast witha relatively little effort. But really, something like the war u crane, you could spend eight or nine hours and that could be your entire job. You might discover something you missed if you spend that time.
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