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106: A BIG 2023 Economic Forecast from Harvard's Jason Furman

On The Market

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The Supply-Size Shock Narrative

The hope is that the last two years were just some crazy unusual period of time and now we're back in a normal world. I think monetary policy makers were to some degree fighting the last war and had a very asymmetric approach, where they were much more worried about employment than inflation. They fed, did not stop buying assets and raising rates until the unemployment rate was basically 3.5%, and the inflation rate was over 5%.

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