Intro

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It's time for a liquidity masterclass with Michael Howell. Raoul's Everything Code thesis suggests that liquidity is the biggest driver of asset prices across both macro and crypto. Today for all viewers, he welcomes the industry's foremost liquidity expert Michael Howell, founder and CEO of CrossBorder Capital, where global money flows are headed, how this impacts markets, and whether it could push us into the next "Banana Zone." Recorded on June 24, 2024.

This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world's largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore from 18 to 19 September. Balaji Srinivasan, Solana's Anatoly, Arthur Hayes, and over 250 others will hit the stage, as TOKEN2049 takes over the iconic Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. With over 500 side events during TOKEN2049 Week, Singapore will transform into a crypto hub from 16 to 22 September, capped off by AFTER 2049, and the Formula 1 Grand Prix race weekend. Everyone will be there – this is the one event you can't miss this year.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 event in Singapore

00:51 - Importance of subscribing and engaging with the channel

01:19 - Raoul Pal introduces his show "The Journeyman"

01:52 - Overview of Raoul Pal's "Everything Code" thesis

02:26 - Explanation of the debt refi cycle and liquidity's role

03:01 - Discussion with Mike Howell on liquidity

03:38 - Mike Howell's background and framework on liquidity

05:17 - Evolution of global liquidity concept

07:27 - Current liquidity frameworks and key metrics

10:39 - Dominance of liquidity in markets since the mid-2000s

12:13 - Correlation between global liquidity and market performance

15:11 - Importance of term premium and its impact on bond markets

17:14 - Liquidity's effect on P/E ratios and market dynamics

18:17 - Central banks' role in maintaining liquidity and managing debt

21:22 - Differentiating between monetary inflation and deflation crises

23:22 - The significance of debt refinancing in financial crises

25:38 - Various sources of liquidity in the US

27:39 - Treasury General Account and its impact on liquidity

28:42 - Discussion on the dollar milkshake theory and dollar strength

31:45 - China's role and challenges in the global liquidity landscape

33:52 - Janet Yellen's strategies to add liquidity

36:04 - Potential impact of Fannie Mae's changes on liquidity

39:28 - Challenges faced by China's economy and the need for liquidity

41:30 - Basel 4 and its implications for banks and bond markets

43:36 - Europe's green energy transition and its impact on liquidity

44:32 - Potential risks and opportunities in the French banking sector

45:00 - Likelihood of central banks using their balance sheets

46:38 - Forecast for the liquidity cycle in the next few years

50:44 - Prospects for risk assets in a sluggish economy

51:20 - Expected peak of the liquidity cycle and underlying trends

56:03 - Historical parallels with post-World War II debt cycles

57:01 - Necessity of liquidity for economic stability and growth

59:09 - Central banks' understanding of the global debt situation

1:00:05 - Importance of monitoring liquidity and potential future trends

Connect with me:

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Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/3LHYIaH

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