How to spot a market bottom

I had the pleasure of co-hosting another episode of Excess Returns with Matt Zeigler.

In this wide-ranging conversation, Gautam Baid joins Excess Returns to discuss the principles that shaped his investing philosophy, the lessons learned through bear markets, and why compounding, patience, and quality matter far more than forecasts or short-term performance. Drawing from his books The Joys of Compounding and The Making of a Value Investor, Baid shares a deeply reflective framework for long-term investing, portfolio construction, behavioral discipline, and global diversification, with insights spanning Indian and US markets, liquidity cycles, AI, and investor psychology.

Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧

I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.

https://excessreturnspod.com/

https://cultishcreative.com/

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and the asymmetric nature of compounding
01:00 Gautam Baid’s investing background and books
03:00 The importance of journaling and learning through bear markets
06:00 Investor sentiment, IPOs, and late-cycle market behavior
10:20 Long-term investing versus complacency and monitoring risk
14:15 Convex upside, concave downside, and letting winners run
18:30 Liquidity cycles and lessons from Stan Druckenmiller
22:45 Identifying market bottoms and the anatomy of bull and bear markets
28:00 Averaging down, quality, and risk management
30:30 How bear markets change investor psychology and strategy
33:00 Patience, management quality, and long-term optionality
36:15 Mr. Market, price signals, and market intelligence
39:00 The Federal Reserve, inflation, and asset price dynamics
44:00 Understanding the Indian equity market and valuation structure
46:45 Why global diversification matters for US investors
50:30 AI, margins, and the future of value investing
53:00 Passion, purpose, and the psychology of long-term investing
54:30 The single most note investors should learn

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement

Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.

Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.