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#78 – Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress
80,000 Hours Podcast
Do You Think Progress Is Linear?
If we thought that progress in capabilities was linear, then we might draw a pessimistic conclusion about our ability to increase progress. In the case of compute, it's expediential. But i get the feeling of an accidental thing,. from looking at the examples, because in like, two thousand eight, it's basically rounds to zero as faras i can tell. And so one way you could argue for a linear thing is to be like, how often do we get something like this? Do we get things like this at the same frequency all the time, or are we getting these things more frequent the things that are a given size? I think that's what we'd see if we measured
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