Macro Horizons: The 13th Consecutive Upside Surprise

The regional banking issues and concerns that the contagion could spread further have and will probably continue to keep rates lower than they might have otherwise been. 365 in two-year yields proved to be a good selling opportunity, and in the event of a retest of that range, we would similarly expect a bounce in front in nominal rates as such pricing implies a near-term Fed cut. Anything above that 360-365 zone would represent a solid buying opportunity given the mounting array of global economic headwinds. We'll note that April represented the 13th consecutive upside surprise, not so unlucky after all, unless you're long surgeries.