Chuck's updated top-five governors to flip

In this episode, Chuck Todd breaks down an extraordinary week in politics marked by a near-unanimous House vote to release the Epstein files and growing signs that Donald Trump’s decade-long grip on American politics may finally be loosening. He examines the cracks emerging in Trump’s coalition, the administration’s tariff pullbacks amid rising food costs, and the mounting Trump fatigue driving Republicans to quietly distance themselves. Chuck also tackles Trump’s escalating attacks on female reporters, his contradictory dealings with Gulf states, and the likelihood that the DOJ may cite an “open investigation” to keep the Epstein files sealed. Beyond the Trump saga, Chuck dissects the troubling implications of the Olivia Nuzzi scandal, the shameful rhetoric surrounding Epstein’s victims, and the broader damage to journalism. He wraps with a preview of the TN-07 special election, the legal upheaval over Texas’s redistricting maps, and why today’s partisan map fights echo battles not seen since the 1840s.

Then, Chuck sits down with Iowa Democratic senate candidate and four-time Paralympian and gold medalist Josh Turek for a deeply personal and politically sharp conversation. Josh shares his remarkable journey—from being born with spina bifida caused by his father’s exposure to Agent Orange, to discovering wheelchair basketball as a pathway to college, to becoming one of the winningest athletes in Paralympic history. He opens up about the emotional challenge of leaving the sport he loved and what ultimately pushed him toward public service. Together, Chuck and Josh explore how the ADA reshaped life for disabled Americans, why adaptive and women’s sports remain undervalued, and how equal access—not guaranteed equal outcomes—remains the core civil rights debate for the disability community.

The conversation widens into an unvarnished look at rural politics, Iowa’s sharp rightward turn, and the policies reshaping life in small towns. Josh breaks down why Medicaid denials have exploded, how school choice is quietly devastating rural school districts, and why tariffs—when used chaotically—are crushing family farms. He tackles complex cultural issues such as religion’s decline, the trans sports debate, and why Democrats shouldn’t cede Christianity or populism to the right. They also cover climate messaging, the stakes for U.S. policy in Israel and Ukraine, and whether Congress should step in to regulate collegiate athletics. With insights on Iowa’s political future, the 2026 Democratic opportunity, and even some NBA talk (yes—Jokić and Jordan both make an appearance), Josh Turek offers one of the most candid, wide-ranging conversations you’ll hear about the Midwest, disability rights, and the future of American politics.

Finally, Chuck gives his updated ToddCast Top 5 governor’s seats most likely to flip in 2026 and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Near unanimous decision in the house vote to release Epstein files

01:15 It feels like Trump’s lame duck period has begun, but impossible to know

02:15 Trump’s coalition is starting to crack

04:00 Trump’s ten year run of dominating politics is starting to end

05:00 Administration is pulling back tariffs to lower costs of food

06:45 Republicans will distance themselves as Trump fatigue sets in

07:45 Trump’s attacks on female reporters are shameful

09:15 Trump’s deals with gulf states undermines his America First agenda

11:00 DOJ might withhold files under guise of “open investigation”

12:30 Neither Biden or Trump leaned on Saudis over Khashoggi’s murder

13:30 Middle east monarchies are dictatorships with different titles

15:00 We’re past the point of holding Saudis accountable for Khashoggi

16:30 Presidents have to deal with less than ideal allies

17:30 Trump’s attacks on the press are abhorrent & dictatorlike

19:00 Olivia Nuzzi sleeping with a source compromises her journalism

21:15 The Nuzzi scandal feels like watching a car wreck

22:00 The scandal brings shame upon the journalism world

23:30 Megyn Kelly trying to differentiate Epstein’s victims is shameful

25:00 Hiring a reporter that sleeps with sources is beyond the pale

25:30 Preview of special election in TN-07 

26:45 If TN-07 is within 5 points, it’s a very favorable environment for Dems

28:00 Texas’s new redistricting maps have been thrown out in court

28:45 If CA maps stay but TX is thrown out, it’s a karma moment for Trump

30:45 Last time partisan redistricting happened like this… was the 1840’s

38:00 Josh Turek joins the Chuck ToddCast

39:30 Josh’s journey as a gold medal winning paralympian

40:45 Josh’s fathers exposure to agent orange caused his spina bifida

42:30 Wheelchair basketball was his pathway to college

43:45 What do we not value adaptive & female sports in America?

46:00 How hard was it to walk away from basketball?

47:45 What inspired the decision to go into politics?

49:00 There was a 1000% increase in medicaid denials in Iowa

50:30 The ADA made things better, still a long ways to go

51:45 The ADA gave disabled Americans an onramp to society

54:30 The debate over equal access vs. equal outcome

55:15 Who is the Turek/Trump voter?

57:45 The difficulty of breaking through as a Democrat in rural America

59:45 Iowa has shifted rightward, but could shift back to swing state status

01:03:00 The right candidate with the right message can win red Iowa counties

01:05:15 School choice sounds great, but is a huge problem for rural America

01:06:45 Rural schools are struggling and closing under school choice policies

01:08:15 There are no standards for private schools spending tax dollars

01:11:00 Not all tariffs are bad, but Trump’s tariff regime is chaotic

01:12:00 Tariffs are crushing family farms

01:13:00 What’s the plan to keep people in Iowa and reverse brain drain?

01:15:45 How has the decline in religious participation affected Iowa?

01:17:00 Pushing back against the narrative that Democrats can’t be christian

01:17:30 What’s fair to the trans community when it comes to organized sports?

01:18:45 Politicians shouldn’t be involved in the trans sports conversation

01:19:30 Why have many Democrats turned to socialism over capitalism?

01:20:30 We need regulated capitalism and a progressive tax structure

01:21:15 We are living in a country of have’s and have nots

01:22:45 Addressing climate change without scaring voters about the economy

01:24:15 What’s your position on Israel?

01:25:15 The U.S. should stand in solidarity with Ukraine & aid them

01:26:15 Does Congress need to get involved in regulating collegiate sports?

01:29:30 We need more genuine populists in congress to push back against oligarchs

01:31:15 Nikola Jokic is Josh’s favorite basketball player to watch

01:32:45 Michael Jordan is the GOAT

01:33:45 Historic opportunity for Democrats in Iowa in ‘26

01:35:00 Democrats focused too much on identity in Iowa

01:37:30 Public schools will be a huge issue for Iowa voters

01:39:15 If Democrats can’t win Iowa in this environment, it could take a generation

01:43:30 There are three great candidates for the Iowa Democratic senate seat

01:44:30 Primaries sharpen candidates and improve party registration

01:45:00 Toddcast Top 5 - Governor seats most likely to flip parties

01:46:45 Katie Hobbs is the most vulnerable incumbent governor

01:48:00 #1 Kansas

01:49:30 #2 Michigan

01:51:15 #3 Georgia

01:53:30 #4 Wisconsin

01:54:30 #5 Iowa

01:56:30 Honorable mentions

01:57:30 Ask Chuck

01:58:30 Can we trust the Epstein files will be complete if they’re released?

02:00:15 Are you aware of the Montana vs Montana State football rivalry?

02:03:15 Has your view on CA redistricting changed after the election result?

02:05:30 How can you reach people stuck in the Fox News bubble?

02:11:30 Does Amy Acton or Tim Ryan have a better shot at winning OH governor?

02:13:30 Suggestion to make a conspiracy theory documentary

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