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Navigating Economic Forecasts and the China Shock
This chapter delves into the intricacies of economic forecasts, particularly through the lens of the China shock phenomenon. It critically examines the reliability of economists' predictions and the evolving nature of market dynamics and financial capitalism.
In todayâs episode, Noah Smith and Brad DeLong tackle pressing topics such as the potential for a 'China Shock 2', the effectiveness of missile defense systems, and the shifting role of economists since the Great Recession. They also explore the nuances of economic theory, policy implementation, and real-world outcomes, particularly in a fast-paced information age.
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
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LINKS:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
Hexapedia links:
APPLE - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hexapodia-is-the-key-insight-by-noah-smith-brad-delong/id1552990332
SPOTIFY - https://open.spotify.com/show/2uHLn3k2PrhY3exPs1sUeB
References:
Brad DeLong: https://braddelong.substack.com/
Smith, Noah. 2024. âWhy so many of us were wrong about missile defenseâ. Noahpinion. April 15.
Smith, Noah. 2024. âTwilight of the economists?â Noahpinion. April 12.
Smith, Noah. 2024. âThe decade of the Second China Shockâ. March 23.
Vinge, Vernor. 1999. A Deepness in the Sky. New York: Tor Books
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(02:10) China Shock 2.0
(07:30) Debating U.S. policy responses
(09:59) China's manufacturing and global trade
(18:21) Market economies of Europe and Japan
(22:58) Sponsors: Netsuite | Alts
(25:02) Importance of taking preemptive actions
(32:08) Financial capitalism vs. Industrial policy
(33:40) Sponsor: WorkOS
(35:21) Financial Capitalism and Intel's Struggles
(35:51) Critique of economists and economics
(37:03) State of the economics profession
(40:31) Economists' influence on policy
(48:18) Missile defense and Its Implications
(51:55) Russia's military strategy and economic constraints
(59:56) Future of warfare and economic mobilization
(01:07:14) Wrap
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode