Col Doug Macgregor: Ukraine Russia Talks Look Unlikely, NOW WHAT?
Daniel Davis Deep Dive
Intro
This chapter examines Trump's efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, contrasting his motivations and methods with those of his predecessor. It highlights the challenges of impulsive decision-making in diplomacy and the ongoing absence of effective strategies for achieving genuine resolutions.
Trump is pushing hard for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, partly motivated by the prospect of a Nobel Peace Prize. He claims both Putin and Zelensky want an end to the war, but major challenges remain, including conflicting demands and logistical realities. Trump has repeatedly promised quick resolutions but failed to deliver, and his efforts—such as the Alaska meeting—appear largely symbolic and focused on optics rather than substance. Unlike Cold War-era summits that involved months of preparation, Trump’s approach lacks a coherent strategy, making meaningful progress unlikely.
Analyst Douglas McGregor argues Trump’s efforts resemble a “reality TV show,” driven by image rather than policy, and says no genuine agreements are in place. He warns against Trump’s claim of ending the war in 24 hours as unrealistic. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo dismisses reports of Russia conceding the Donbas as absurd, suggesting a peace deal would still require Zelensky to accept some territorial losses. Macron and other European leaders echo skepticism about Russia’s strength, citing minimal territorial gains since late 2022, but McGregor counters that Russia’s goal was never territory—it was to destroy Ukraine’s military capacity, which he claims has largely been achieved. He argues Western leaders cling to narratives and power while Russia is winning the war strategically.
Trump’s Push for Peace
Motivation: Trump strongly desires to end the Russia-Ukraine war, partly because he wants a Nobel Peace Prize.
Claims: Says both Putin and Zelensky want peace and believes a deal can be reached soon.
Deadlines: Trump repeatedly promised quick solutions—“end the war in a day,” “in 100 days,” etc.—but none materialized.
Current Position: Recently stated “we’ll know something in a couple of weeks,” but no substantive progress has emerged.
Alaska Meeting and Optics
The meeting in Alaska was staged as a symbolic event rather than a strategic negotiation.
McGregor describes it as “a feel-good moment” and part of Trump’s reality-TV-style approach.
Trump wanted to project an image of changing U.S.-Russia relations, emphasizing photo ops with military assets like F-22s and B-2 bombers.
Lacked the systematic preparation seen in past U.S.-Soviet summits, which typically took months.
Lack of Coherent Strategy
McGregor says Trump has never articulated a real strategy for Ukraine or Russia.
His actions appear driven by impulse and optics rather than policy planning.
Result: Despite Trump’s claims, the situation remains unchanged from months ago—no new agreements or concrete peace plan.
Pompeo’s Comments
Pompeo mocks Trump’s claim that Russia would accept losing the Donbas region, calling it “ridiculous.”
Argues that after losing 200,000–250,000 soldiers, Russia will not give away territory for nothing.
Suggests Zelensky may eventually have to accept some territorial losses for peace, even if Ukraine doesn’t formally recognize them.
Believes a sustainable peace could happen if proper security guarantees are included.
Counterpoints by McGregor
Dismisses Pompeo’s remarks, calling them dishonest and part of a false narrative.
Notes Pompeo himself admitted lying as CIA Director.
Says the idea that the war started because “Putin woke up and decided to invade” is fiction.
Claims U.S. actions were designed to weaken/destroy Russia.
European Leaders’ Skepticism
Macron and others echo doubts about Russia’s strength, citing minimal territorial gains since late 2022 (only ~1% additional land captured).
They argue this proves Russia can’t achieve its goals.
McGregor’s Rebuttal on Russia’s Strategy
Russia never intended to seize large territories but aimed to destroy Ukraine’s military capability.
Claims Russia is succeeding:
Ukrainian forces and paramilitary units are “almost annihilated.”
Estimates 1.7–1.8 million Ukrainians killed (though these figures are highly controversial and likely exaggerated).
Russia now operating beyond the Dnipro River, with special operations near Odessa targeting bases.
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