3min chapter

Year in Review: Why 2022 Was a Year to Remember and Possibly a Turning Point

This Week in Intelligent Investing

CHAPTER

Forecasting Is Really Hard, Right?

Sally Kohn: My number one lesson and implication from looking back at all the crazy nonsense that's happened in the last year or two or three is that forecasting is really hard. And if you just have this total coxure attitude that, you know, you're right and the world is always wrong,. It's just a recipe for disaster and it's going to make it. The only way to combat that in the business and financial sense of it is to use a range or a probability instead of a discreet point estimate.

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Speaker 2

That's really cool. I will sure that, having read your development log on your sight on a 12 minutes game dot com, yet, it's really cool to watch your process andnd that you were open about it and wad what was was ian easy decision, just to be opened from the very beginning about the process you were taking, or did you have to wrestle with that one?

Speaker 1

Ah, there was a couple of reasons. Like, as an artista, every time you learn a new tool or like or you want to learn a new skill, it's very useful to to catalogue your development, because you don't, it's very hard, from your perspective to see any progress. Like if you're learning a new skill, and doing a blog as an artist is very useful because you can seeye now, i know how to draw an ado me, or whatever. Because i can't see the drawings i was doing three months ago that i made a blog about. So i wanted to do the same process for myself, to see the evolution of this process i'm going through. But on the other hand, i also realize there there won't have many resources. I mean, lucas pope ontic sourc is a very big inspiration for me, where in oberden paper plet. He shares every single and i wanted to kind of, ye also share this, this journey with it other developers and and just be open about it. I think it's i mean, i'm actually writing nowa a more indept making off, because now i can share in all the spoilers and all the struggles, and even the prototypes that no one ever saw.

Speaker 2

That's great.