Introduction

As the calendar flips to August this week, consumers, workers, investors and the Federal Reserve all have reason to be pleased with recent data. Stock market returns have been strong all year, economic growth has been surprisingly resilient, unemployment remains very low and, despite all of this, inflation has fallen sharply. The Fed continues to tighten in a manner that appears aggressive given the balance of risks. However, so far, this does not appear to have inflicted too much damage on the overall economy or markets. So where do we go from here? One approach to this question is just to review an economic checklist of Growth, Jobs, Inflation, Profits and Rates.