4min chapter

Flirting with Models cover image

Jeffrey Baird - Commodity Convexity (S3E6)

Flirting with Models

CHAPTER

The Stickiness of Cantangor Backgradation, and Your Theories for It?

Inventories, global inventory balances and kind of the current deficit or surplus that a market might be running tends to gover what those forward curved structures are going to look like. A lot of times inventories operate with a significant lag to underlying changes in supplying demand findamentals. So if we can identify what we think might be an inflection point where you're going to see shift in certain factoris that are going to drive that market balance, it might take time for that to play out. The other interesting thing about spread options is different markets have different capacities to hold inventories.

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