This week, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans talk about the dramatic overnight events in Iran, as Israel's actions have led to spikes in the prices of oil and gold, but not driven the usual "flight to the dollar" in any meaningful way - the USD is trading at three-year lows. Does this signal a loss of status as a safe haven, or is it simply that investors expect the conflict to be contained and localised?

More broadly, we have seen the US / China trade deal being pieced together, although President Trump couldn't help himself launching some other tariff threats even as the China situation appears to be stabilising. Look for an interesting discussion next week about Jay Powell's competence if the FOMC dares to not lower rates...

On the UK front, Jeremy makes the point that the ongoing M&A departures are nowhere near to being replaced by IPOs - by a factor of 30:1, based on some work by Peel Hunt. UK stocks are disappearing at a steady (and worrying) rate - those who remain are clearly "resilient" as we discussed previously, and they're becoming more and more scarce....hopefully this scarcity makes them attractive - a positive sign for valuations among those not (yet) acquired by mainly American bidders.

We had Progressive client news from Gear4Music, who acquired some cut-price assets from a failed competitor, Idox, who saw 9% y/y growth in their order book in the H1 they reported, and Intuitive Investments Group who raised just under £10m to propel activity in Hui10, a business involved in modernising and streamlining the antiquated Chinese state lottery.

Next week we have UK inflation and a rate decision (likely no change), and the US Fed rate decision (likely no change but watch for Trump's response). Also, keep an eye on Japan - they have a rate decision on Monday and inflation data on Friday; hopefully no surprises, although as Jeremy reminds us, at some point Japan could make headlines again. In the meantime, we hope that the Middle East sees a degree of calm returning.

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