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2min chapter
Scout and Soldier Mindsets (with Julia Galef)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
The Benefits of Expected Value Thinking
If you're open minded about what does success look like and you roll the dime a bunch of times, maybe you actually do have a pretty good probability of achieving quote success in some form that you're happy with. The principle of your chance of coming out ahead overall goes up the more positive expected value bets you make That still holds even if you're making the bets staggered one month or one year after the other. And so I think this is a less intuitively obvious example of a investment portfolio to people because it's not a bunch of bets you're making all at the same time.
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