The Benefits of Expected Value Thinking

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If you're open minded about what does success look like and you roll the dime a bunch of times, maybe you actually do have a pretty good probability of achieving quote success in some form that you're happy with. The principle of your chance of coming out ahead overall goes up the more positive expected value bets you make That still holds even if you're making the bets staggered one month or one year after the other. And so I think this is a less intuitively obvious example of a investment portfolio to people because it's not a bunch of bets you're making all at the same time.

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What are "scout" and "soldier" mindsets? How can we have productive disagreements even when one person isn't in scout mindset? Is knowing about good rationality habits sufficient to reason well? When do we naturally tend to be in scout mindset or soldier mindset? When is each mindset beneficial or harmful? Are humans "rationally irrational"? What are the two different types of confidence? What are some practical strategies for shifting our mindset in the moment from soldier to scout?

Find out more about Julia at juliagalef.com.

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