How to Predict a Flood in North America?

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Philip Klein: We were quite readily seduced by stories. When you're making a prediction, start with the base rat the outside in view. Beware of the risks of story telling. Finally, amateurs make three kinds of predictions, yes, no, and maybe. Professionals have many gradations of maybe. And they attach specific probability estimates to their predictions.

When disaster strikes — from the explosion of a space shuttle to the spread of a deadly virus — we want to know whether we could have avoided catastrophe. Did anyone speak up with concerns about the situation? And if so, why didn’t someone listen? This week, we revisit a favorite episode about the psychology of warnings, and how we can all become better at predicting the future.

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