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You Don't Need a Crystal Ball
Hidden Brain
How to Predict a Flood in North America?
Philip Klein: We were quite readily seduced by stories. When you're making a prediction, start with the base rat the outside in view. Beware of the risks of story telling. Finally, amateurs make three kinds of predictions, yes, no, and maybe. Professionals have many gradations of maybe. And they attach specific probability estimates to their predictions.
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