The Next Big Trade - Dan Rasmussen on When It’s Time for Small-Value Stocks
Real Vision: Finance & Investing
Is There a Crisis?
The best indicator for understanding where we are in the economic cycle, and specifically whether we're in a crisis or not, is the high yield spread. Ben Bernanke was saying that small shocks turn into big crises because of financial markets. Once spreads hits 600 in the US or one spreads at 800 in the Europe, that's what I've spent a lot of time studying. We can then use look at emerging markets as well on emerging markets - there's about twice as many crises in emerging markets as there are in developed markets.
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