How to Resolve a Prediction Market

By 2050 will there be an AI which Scott Alexander thinks qualifies as human level, he asks. In practice, once you get to this level of details, people mostly stop worrying about this,. Another method is to just leave it up to human judgment - specifically the judgment of the person who made the market. This will force market participants to price in the risk that I have bad judgment or act dishonestly. But perhaps these risks are small.