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200 | Solo: The Philosophy of the Multiverse
Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas
The Doomsday Argument
This leads to what is called the doomsday argument, that you predict imminent demise for humanityd let me explain what i mean by that. So we have a reference class, were gont asume we're typical within it. But what we do as we first assign a prior probability, and then we assume we're typicalWithin all the observers within that scenario. In theory a, the small universe theory, be a theory in which there are 200 billion human beings who will ever live. Theory b has 200 trillion, so over a thousand times the number that have already existed. Now those are our two scenarios. We have some prior that they are a likely or unlikely. What is the data
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