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Episode 300: Wild Problems

Historically Thinking

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The Illusion of Quantified Certainty and Its Pitfalls

This chapter examines the challenges of quantifying risk in decision-making, especially in finance, emphasizing the hazards of overconfidence in seemingly accurate data. Utilizing the turkey anecdote, it cautions against the appeal of simplistic solutions in health and productivity, urging discernment and critical thinking.

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