Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez cover image

Karl Massey on the End of Investing as We Know It

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

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What Happeneth if It's Not a Wing Event?

What happens if we just don't go back to the mean reversion assumptions that we have had, all the great 60 forty returns we expect to make on aggregate? What happens if, instead of the distribution being built around plus ten %, that distribution is now built minus five? I'm not saying it's going to stay there. That probably is a gigantic amount of people getting out of all sorts of excess risks. But it is possible that we could see a new ecla rem built about an entirely different mean, that's always a risk. The reason why it might be right this time is that many of the things that have driven it there have just not gone awy.

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